A while back, Manoj Bajpayee came with a song Bombai me ka ba, a rap which actually got used in the elections albeit with a variation. So I thought, why not tell my readers what is actually there in the politics of Bihar, my variation of Bihar me ee Ba.
Bihar is the third most highly populous State of India with a population of 9.9 Crores (2012 official released data). Also, it has the lowest GDP per capita in India with a rank of 33rd, which has contributed to its image for a long time now. While UP might be the deciding factor in any National Elections, it is Bihar which acts as a King Maker. And this might be the perfect time to let you all know about the Political Equations of Bihar when it goes into elections to choose its next Chief Minister.
Currently, Nitish Kumar is the chief minister of Bihar along with Sushil Kumar Modi as Deputy Chief Minister and has been serving the state for the last 3 terms since 2005. This NDA tenure is going to end in November 2020 and it means the Election is being conducted from 28 Oct 2020 to 7 Nov 2020. (Go and do Vote if you are reading this from Bihar.)
Bihar might be one of the few states, where different "Vote Banks" and combinations dictate the Election results. One of the finest examples of that might be the 2015 election against the Modi Wave by the so-called Mahagathbandhan. Now you might argue, people came out in support of Nitish Kumar due to his development work, but the statistics that JDU pulled around 80 seats and RJD stood close second with 71 seats.
Before I divulge into the detailed structure of Bihar Politics, let's have a look at the population division of Bihar on the basis of caste/clan. Yes, It is unfortunate to talk about the caste in this decade but the caste term is a brick of the castle of modern Bihar politics.
CASTE BASED POPULATION DIVISION OF BIHAR
Mind you, the OBC population include (Yadavs 12%, Kurmis - 4%, and others) while the so-called Forward caste include (Rajputs, Brahmins, Bhumihars among others), basically every unreserved person in Bihar belongs to the Forward Caste (reminiscent of the Forward-Backward Caste and Reservation politics of past)
YADAV MUSLIM CASTE EQUATION
If we are talking about Bihar politics then the name of Lalu Prasad Yadav cannot be skipped. After all, he deserves Full Credit to discover this caste equation. From the above population data, you might have got the idea that the OBC+Muslims ( popularly known as The Muslim-Yadav Samikaran) has a huge Majority. For the last three decades, whole Bihar politics revolve around this Equation.
Lalu Prasad Yadav got the chair of the chief minister during the aftermath of the Students Movement of Jaiprakash Narayan. India was ravaged by various mass movements like for Ram Temple and Mandal Commission(Mandal-Kamandal Politics). His charisma and appeal to the backward classes was something revolutionary for that times' Bihar and Backward Classes(mostly the workers in huge lands owned by the forward Class) voted in large number for him. He managed to make these OBCs loyal to him with some populist policies.
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| Lalu Yadav addressing a rally in 1988 |
While Yadavas and other OBCs came to him due to his image of being a "Voice of the voiceless", Muslims truly became loyal to him after his act of stopping the Rath Yatra by LK Advani in Bihar. A political masterclass!
After Laloo Prasad Yadav, his wife Rabri Devi got the chance to sit on the iron throne and her tenure coined as "Jungle Raj", she failed to keep in check other party leaders and also Law and Order. This Equation was strongest in the 90s but nowadays its popularity has started to lose its shine. Though even in the recent elections, nobody dares to underestimate the equation. It has been highly used along with some new Equations. RJD's whole voter banks fall under this caste Equation.
NATIONALIST -UPPER CASTE EQUATION
During the 15 years of RJD rule, the Upper caste felt separated from mainstream politics. The rise of the BJP with their nationalist ideology looks like a ray of hope for the upper caste. They used to be the real vote banks of Congress in the early years, but with the rise of BJP, voters found a more suitable political representation in the party.
We must also discuss the current CM of Bihar in this section, Nitish Kumar has always tried to be a leader of everyone and not only a leader of any particular caste, unlike Lalu and RJD. The urban living Upper Caste educated people also like Nitish due to his image being established as the "Sushashan Babu" or "Good Governance".
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| Faces of JDU-BJP Alliance in Bihar |
Nitish was smart in not directly coming in support of Narendra Modi in beginning, as whatever the case, he had to be dependent on 17% of Muslim votes in Bihar. Also, you cannot ignore the fact that for the last 15 years Nitish Kumar is getting the benefit of these nationalist upper-caste equations, with BJP being his natural alliance for the past 15 years, he has been the face for the upper caste although, we can call him a stopgap solution from upper caste perspective. This might even be the last generation of voters where caste-based equations are deciding the elections If the new face of RJD fails to perform magic like Lalu did in his heydays.
YOUNGBLOOD EQUATION
As the name says this is Equations of Young politicians. A large section of voters wants some change and wants some Young Blood to lead the state. Tejaswi Yadav son of Laloo Prasad Yadav and Rabri Devi Emerges with the flag of this Equation. But on the battlefield of Bihar Election Chirag Paswan also hold the same flag of Young Blood.
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| so-called leaders of the next generation |
Grand Alliance- RJD, INC, CPIML, CPI, CPM came together and declared Tejashwi Yadav as their CM face. So, Tejashwi has now advantage of both Young Blood Equation and Yadav-Muslim Caste Equation. Also, Tejaswi is a bigger face than Chirag, and also he is pumped by Experienced leaders whereas Chirag is now alone after the death of his late father and an astute politician Ram Vilas Paswan. Chirag Paswan is contesting the Election alone after breaking the alliance with NDA. Some Political Experts says that he is projected by BJP to attract voters who are angry with Nitish Kumar and want Young Blood to rule, even if that is not the case, it will be hurting RJD more than BJP.
RISE OF NEW EQUATIONS
More of the recent elections are moving away from the old Backward vs Forward, Hindu vs Muslim, etc equations, as Indian voters are getting younger on average, parties are also trying to appease them with a change in their strategies.
These days Bihar is seeing a mixture of all the above Equations. there are lots of new alliance formed by small political parties like the Grand Democratic Secular Front -the Upendra Kushwaha led RLSP forged a new political front with Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM, BSP, the Samajwadi Party Democratic and Democratic Party (Socialist).
Progressive Democratic Alliance (PDA)- headed by the Jan Adhikar Party (JAP) and Azad Samaj Party(chief Chandra Shekhar Azad) declared Pappu Yadav as their chief minister candidate.
Plurals party - led by Pushpam Priya Chaudhry declared herself as the CM candidate and Contesting Election on all 243 seats. Plurals became a sensation on social media and attracted the Youth who don't want to vote Old parties and also looking for Other Options irrespective of caste. Political Experts Quoted Plurals as "FACEBOOK PARTY" and believe that the ideology of the party is too Ideal for Bihar. Her Effort to create a new equation of Economics politics is welcomed but still, she has to travel a long distance in this political road before she can claim a massive effect in the Bihar Arena.
NOW ITS TIME FOR THE THEOREM, IT IS VERY POPULAR PYTHAGORAS THEOREM
In the political science classes, this theorem is stated as: if two political parties combined together it will be bigger than the third party considering all three parties has a bigger impact in state politics individually. Bihar has three large impactful party JDU, BJP, RJD. whenever two of them form alliances they registred the majority. some political pundits predict that NDA is looking strong but we cannot underestimate the Grand alliance too. It might be true that either Nitish Kumar or Sushil Kumar Modi sits on the Iron Throne of Bihar, but along with the development and governance of Nitish, traditionally loyal voters are equally the pillar of this throne.
That was all from my side this time, this article was contributed by my friend Prashun Kumar (who himself hails from Bihar). It is my sincere apology to anyone who might feel offended by it, trust me we don't intend to do that. Hope you all like it and share it with your friends.
~Ciao
For further understanding of Politics, you can read more about
Students' Movement called the Bihar Movement
A history of Janta Dal, the parent of both RJD and JDU
Article on Bihar Politics by TimesNow
Images are property of their owners.
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